USDA AFRI - Projecting Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Fire-Prone Forests
Research Team: Matthew Hurteau, Anthony Westerling, Tamara Wall, Christine Wiedinmyer, Shuang Liang
Objectives: The overall goal of this proposed research is to project how inducing changes in forest structure to reduce wildfire severity may alter the climate change mitigation potential and adaptive capacity in the Rocky and Sierra Nevada Mountains. The specific objectives are to:
1) Project the frequency of large wildfires.
2) Project the effects of changing climate on forest growth under both no-action and
wildfire risk treatments.
3) Quantify the resulting emissions from projected large wildfires burning through both
treated and untreated forest.
4) Develop outreach materials for both in-person and virtual delivery that provide land
managers with information on mitigation and adaptation to support decision
making in the forest planning process.
Approach: To accomplish these objectives we will simulate future fires with probabilistic statistical models, forest growth modeling will use a landscape-scale forest succession model that simulates both above and belowground processes, and future emissions will be quantified using the FINN model. An integrated stakeholder approach to data product development will be used to facilitate outreach implementation.
Potential Impact: The results of this research will improve our understanding of the effects that projected changes in climate will have on large wildfire frequency, forest type distribution and growth, and the interactive effects of changing climate and wildfire on forest type distribution and growth. Quantifying the wildfire emissions will provide information regarding the potential effects of these large wildfires on air quality. Integrated stakeholder involvement will ensure that the data products from this research are provided in a manner that supports forest management planning.
Research Products:
Publications
Hurteau, MD, AL Westerling, C Wiedinmyer, BP Bryant. 2014. Projected effects of growth and development on California wildfire
emissions through 2100. Environmental Science and Technology, 48:2298-2304.
Liang, S.*, M.D. Hurteau, A.L. Westerling. 2017. Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate-wildfire interactions. Global Change Biology 23:2016-2030.
Liang, S.*, M.D. Hurteau, A.L. Westerling. 2017. Potential decline in carbon carrying capacity under projected climate-wildfire interactions in the Sierra Nevada. Scientific Reports 7:2420.
Presentations
Liang, S, MD Hurteau, AL Westerling. Modeling forest composition and carbon dynamics under projected climate-fire interactions in the
Sierra Nevada, California. 2014 American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting.
Keyser, AR, AL Westerling, MD Hurteau, C Wiedinmyer, BP Bryant. Examining the impact of changes in climate and vegetation on future fire activity in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California. 2014 meeting of the Ecological Society of America.
Liang, S, MD Hurteau. Modeling the effects of projected climate on forest diversity and carbon dynamics in the Sierra Nevada, California. 2014 meeting of the Ecological Society of America.
Weidinmyer C. Fire in the Earth System: Interactions with Atmosphere. Walter Orr Roberts Lecture, 2014 meeting of the American
Meteorological Society.
Liang, S, MD Hurteau. Projected effects of climate change on old-growth forest carbon dynamics in the southern Sierra Nevada mountains. 2013 meeting of the Ecological Society of America.
Research Team: Matthew Hurteau, Anthony Westerling, Tamara Wall, Christine Wiedinmyer, Shuang Liang
Objectives: The overall goal of this proposed research is to project how inducing changes in forest structure to reduce wildfire severity may alter the climate change mitigation potential and adaptive capacity in the Rocky and Sierra Nevada Mountains. The specific objectives are to:
1) Project the frequency of large wildfires.
2) Project the effects of changing climate on forest growth under both no-action and
wildfire risk treatments.
3) Quantify the resulting emissions from projected large wildfires burning through both
treated and untreated forest.
4) Develop outreach materials for both in-person and virtual delivery that provide land
managers with information on mitigation and adaptation to support decision
making in the forest planning process.
Approach: To accomplish these objectives we will simulate future fires with probabilistic statistical models, forest growth modeling will use a landscape-scale forest succession model that simulates both above and belowground processes, and future emissions will be quantified using the FINN model. An integrated stakeholder approach to data product development will be used to facilitate outreach implementation.
Potential Impact: The results of this research will improve our understanding of the effects that projected changes in climate will have on large wildfire frequency, forest type distribution and growth, and the interactive effects of changing climate and wildfire on forest type distribution and growth. Quantifying the wildfire emissions will provide information regarding the potential effects of these large wildfires on air quality. Integrated stakeholder involvement will ensure that the data products from this research are provided in a manner that supports forest management planning.
Research Products:
Publications
Hurteau, MD, AL Westerling, C Wiedinmyer, BP Bryant. 2014. Projected effects of growth and development on California wildfire
emissions through 2100. Environmental Science and Technology, 48:2298-2304.
Liang, S.*, M.D. Hurteau, A.L. Westerling. 2017. Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate-wildfire interactions. Global Change Biology 23:2016-2030.
Liang, S.*, M.D. Hurteau, A.L. Westerling. 2017. Potential decline in carbon carrying capacity under projected climate-wildfire interactions in the Sierra Nevada. Scientific Reports 7:2420.
Presentations
Liang, S, MD Hurteau, AL Westerling. Modeling forest composition and carbon dynamics under projected climate-fire interactions in the
Sierra Nevada, California. 2014 American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting.
Keyser, AR, AL Westerling, MD Hurteau, C Wiedinmyer, BP Bryant. Examining the impact of changes in climate and vegetation on future fire activity in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California. 2014 meeting of the Ecological Society of America.
Liang, S, MD Hurteau. Modeling the effects of projected climate on forest diversity and carbon dynamics in the Sierra Nevada, California. 2014 meeting of the Ecological Society of America.
Weidinmyer C. Fire in the Earth System: Interactions with Atmosphere. Walter Orr Roberts Lecture, 2014 meeting of the American
Meteorological Society.
Liang, S, MD Hurteau. Projected effects of climate change on old-growth forest carbon dynamics in the southern Sierra Nevada mountains. 2013 meeting of the Ecological Society of America.